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Increasing apprehensions have emerged regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive language has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrea ignored.

Relations between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a territorial conflict broke out in which numerous people lost their lives.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Border

Currently, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the military, the officer, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in conflict in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a announcement that the hostilities was concluded – a decision that won Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then partners in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated once more.